Photo: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit

Operations “Roaring Lion” and “Epic Fury” are a major strategic turning point for all the parties involved. They have strategic impacts across a wide array of areas and create a new strategic situation in the Middle East and beyond.

First, they clarify that from now on the strategic approach of the United States and Israel is to deal with imminent threats when they are still manageable, and not wait and adopt a policy of containment until it’s too late. This is of course a direct lesson from the horrors of October 7th. It was this policy that enabled Iran to build a “ring of fire” of proxies around Israel, equip itself with thousands of missiles of various ranges (including some that can reach western Europe), and accumulate enough highly enriched uranium (even to 60%) to allow it to build, within a short period of time, a dozen nuclear warheads for its long-range missiles. It was this policy that enabled Hezbollah to acquire an enormous number (approximately 150,000) of missiles covering all of Israel from Lebanon. It was this policy that allowed Hamas to prepare and execute the terror attack of October 7th and exact from Israel the heavy price that it entailed. 

This is over. The United States, under President Trump, and Israel are not going to wait any longer until their enemies approach the point of no return.

This policy is now being implemented by Israel not only vis-à-vis Iran, but also in Lebanon, in Gaza, in Syria, and in Judea and Samaria. Israel’s new national security strategy is to deny its enemies the ability to deploy terror armies along its borders, through the use of force and diplomatic activity.

Second, the United States and Israel operate as a team. The two countries are not shy about calling evil evil, and have demonstrated their capabilities to address threats emanating from evil actors, including Iran, the number one sponsor of terror around the globe. This show of force and resilience is bound to change the strategic architecture of the Middle East. After decades in which this architecture was shaped primarily by Iran through its proxies, the United States and Israel now have an opportunity to strengthen their alliances with stable and peace-seeking countries in the region, proving to them that the benefits of cooperating with the “axis of good” considerably outweigh the destruction caused by cooperating with Iran and other radical Muslim countries – not only in the realm of security and protection against enemies, but also in the economic and technological arenas. The Abraham Accords framework proved resilient to the threats of Iran and its proxies, and may serve as an example for other countries in the region and beyond.

Third, on the eve of its 78th anniversary of independence, Israel proved its ability to contend successfully with threats from several fronts simultaneously, and must now be regarded by other players in the region as a major power in the Middle East (some dare to use the term “regional superpower,” and perhaps more than just regional) – even if American interest in the region wanes in the future. Israel’s cooperation with the United States is a force multiplier, but it has the capability to achieve a great deal on its own. This development is extremely important in view of the growing criticism of Israel in American public opinion and in the public opinion of other Western countries. On the one hand, Israel has proven what a valuable ally it is for the United States; on the other, it has already clarified its intention to reduce its dependence on American financial assistance for its security needs. Israel has also shown how strong its civil society resilience is (Israel ranks eighth on the World Happiness Index) and how strong its economy is – which, despite two-and-a-half years of fighting an ongoing war, continues to show remarkable results. In spite of all of that, it would be advisable for Israel to remember that it is a small country of around 10 million people fighting states with populations almost ten times larger, and to practice caution and modesty in the use of its force.

Fourth, globally, the United States proves to be the leading superpower with an unprecedented and unchallenged military power, with only one real ally that can be counted on – namely Israel. The United States and Israel have taken upon themselves to do what needed to be done in order to secure the West in the face of the threat of radical Islam, and without the American contribution the rest of the West is unable to protect itself. The reluctance and inability of Europe, Canada, Japan, and Australia to contribute to the American effort to defeat a very dangerous enemy of the West – even after safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was challenged, and Iran demonstrated its capability to attack Europe with missiles in addition to its support for the Russian war machine in Ukraine – is a painful manifestation of how weak and out of touch with reality these countries are, and of the extent to which their readiness to allow Muslim immigration has affected their decision-making. Not only did these countries fail to thank the United States (and Israel) for their sacrifices in protecting them while they sat on the sidelines, but some of them (Spain, for example) sided with the enemy and criticized those who fought for their rescue. NATO and the UN proved once again to be irrelevant. China and Russia are also in a complicated position: their ally Iran was attacked and there was nothing they could do about it beyond calling for a ceasefire and offering Iran diplomatic and financial support.

Fifth, these strategic changes may present great opportunities for Israel and its allies. They may lead to a change of regime in Iran, the disarmament of Hamas and Hezbollah, and normalization of relations with many of Israel’s neighbors – including Iran, if the regime there changes. However, we should not underestimate the challenges and threats still ahead. Radical Islam as an ideology – with Iran as its Shiite hub and Turkey and ISIS as leaders of two versions of Sunni radical Islam – remains a force to be reckoned with. The Palestinian issue is not going away and may serve as a source of instability, especially if Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) leaves the stage and Hamas remains in control of part of the Gaza Strip. Antisemitism and anti-Zionism around the globe, fomented by the Red-Green Alliance and by the extreme right, will continue to pose a threat to the security of Jews around the world – including in Australia, as was manifested in the Bondi Beach attack – and these forces will continue to portray Israel as evil and as dragging the West into unnecessary and unjustified wars. Trump will not last forever, and Israel and Jewish communities must prepare for all kinds of eventualities, especially at a time when attitudes toward Israel have become a partisan issue in many countries, including, to a large extent, the United States itself. Israel must invest not only in maintaining its military capabilities and economic fortitude, but also in shaping world public opinion and blocking its enemies – who invest enormous resources in this area – from further weakening its standing.

This Israel Independence Day is marked by the vitality and strength of Israel and its ability, together with the United States, to make the Middle East and the world a better place, and to lend new meaning to the notion of tikkun olam.

Brig. General (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser is head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.